2015Fall_LaRC_ElSalvadorEcologicaForecasting_Transcript

0:00-0:04: Mandatory DEVELOP introduction clip

0:05-0:08: Timelapse of “Forest Matters!” being placed on white background
The images in this footage were hand drawn by our team.
Music in the background -- "No Frills Salsa" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/


0:09-0:21: B-roll footage of Google Earth zooming into our study region
Credit in lower right corner
Voiceover by Stephen Zimmerman
A mountainous tropical forest region in Northern El Salvador: La Mancomunidad La Montañona, Chalatenango has been experiencing forest degradation and deforestation for many years.
Music in the background -- "No Frills Salsa" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/


0:22-0:29: Timelapse of hand drawing a farmer with a green crop growing close by
Zimmerman’s hand
Voiceover by Stephen Zimmerman
This region is home to many small scale subsistence farmers whose main crops include corn, rice, beans, sorghum and also raise pigs, dairy cattle and other common livestock on local pastures.
Music in the background -- "No Frills Salsa" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/


0:30-0:53: Four photos from the ABES Project
Credit in lower right corner
Voice over by Stephen Zimmerman 
The old growth forests also know as primary forests of La Montañona are pine-oak dominant and were subject to low levels of slash and burn agriculture for many years before the outbreak of civil war in 1979. 
As people fled the conflict, secondary forests dominated by broadleaf oaks, were given a chance to regrow until peace settled over the region in 1992. As farmers and community members returned to the region faces the emergence of an old problem.
Music in the background -- "No Frills Salsa" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

0:54-1:02: Time lapse of hand drawing tree stumps and two small trees
Voice over by Courtney Duquette 
The forests of the La Mancomunidad La Montañona are crucial to the health of this area. These forests remove carbon from the atmosphere, filter rivers and streams that locals use for their only water source, and provide soil stability to the more mountainous regions.
Music in the background -- "Tango de Manzana" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

1:03- 1:10: Time lapse of hand drawing two trees making muscles, rain is coming out of the sky. The tree on the left is saying “A deluge of water!” and the tree on the right is saying “Hold the soil!” Below ‘ground’ you can see the tree roots darkly outlined.
Voice over by Courtney Duquette 
Continuation of text above
Music in the background -- "Tango de Manzana" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

1:11 - 1:36: Time lapse of hand drawing the partner and end-user names.
Voice over by Stephen Zimmerman
In collaboration with the Earth Institute at Columbia University ABES Project, the DEVELOP Fall 2015 El Salvador Ecological Forecasting team has set out to make a Land Use/Land Cover map and a forecast model using TerrSet Land Change Modeler that will allow the community in La Mancomunidad La Montañona & the project end-users, MARN, to monitor the condition of their forests, anticipate changes, and mitigate potential issues.
Music in the background -- "No Frills Salsa" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

1:36- 1:57: Time lapse of hand drawing earth with satellites being launched be our treefolks. The satellites then begin to orbit the ‘earth.’
Voice over by Jordan Ped 
To accomplish these tasks, a combination of Landsat CDR 4 and 5 TM and Landsat CDR 8 OLI were obtained from USGS for the years 1986 through 2014. Additional data was provided by our partners including higher resolution imagery from Rapid Eye and QuickBird Satellites and field surveys of small plots throughout the area.
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:01-2:14: Time lapse of hand drawing earth a ‘Landsat’ image with training sites being outlined
Voice over by Jordan Ped 
Beginning by identifying the most critical land cover and land use types in the region...
...and using the most recent landsat image from 2014, ‘training sites’ were created for each land cover type. ArcGIS and Earth Engine were used to test multiple supervised classification methods.
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:15-2:21: Time lapse of a panicking treefolk scurrying across the screen because a classification went wrong.
Voice over by Jordan Ped 
The results aren’t always very accurate the first time in any classification...
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:22-2:28: Two photos from the ABES Project
Voice over by Jordan Ped 
this is partially a result of simplifying complicated land use patterns into a limited number of categories...
and so the 2014 training sites were refined using plot data and high resolution imagery to create the most accurate classification possible.
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:23-2:45: Time lapse of hand redrawing the previous training sites. Later, two Supervised classification maps appear and gently wiggle on the screen.
Credit line: Created in ArcGIS
Voice over by Jordan Ped 
The classifications from 1986 and 2014 were used as the baseline inputs for the development of a forecast model over the longest historical time period available.
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:46-2:56: Time lapse of hand creating a table with accuracy assessment..
Voice over by Susannah Miller
Using a more accurate classification created with high resolution RapidEye to validate our classifications, a percent similar statistic comparing land classes on a pixel-by-pixel scale was calculated.
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

2:57-3:18: Video clip from the ABES Project showing the mountains, trees, and a small group of people taking measurements.
Voice over by Susannah Miller
Therefore a more robust accuracy assessment was performed using ABES plot level data for forest, crop, and pasture. This ground truth combined with 60 randomly selected points from the urban and water classes were compared to the earth engine random forests classification, the overall accuracy was determined to be 61.5%
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

3:19-3:25: Video clip showing the forecast using LandTrendr
Voice over by Susannah Miller
Overall, this is not the land use or land cover we expect to see in La Mancomunidad la Montañona in 2030. 
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

3:26-3:31: Time lapse of a field of tree people slowly disappearing until there are only stumps left.
Voice over by Susannah Miller
 Even though this would be great it is more likely due to an error in the forecast model because it contradicts the trends that are currently being observed with further refinement of training sites and better change variables the model could be greatly improved during the spring 2016 term 
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

3:32-3:41: Whiteboard mountain
Voice over by Courtney Duquette 
Determining the most accurate classifications algorithm will help to build a baseline for future classifications, allowing for long term monitoring in the region and throughout El Salvador
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

3:42-3:55: Five photos from the ABES Project showing some of the farmers. 
Voice over by Courtney Duquette 
The future of the forests of La Mancomunidad la Montañona depend on the decisions being made today. 
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

3:56-4:03: Whiteboard mountain with credits:
Credits
Voices (in order of appearance)
Stephen Zimmerman (Artist)
Courtney Duquette (Sound Technician)
Jordan Ped (Team Lead)
Susannah Miller (Video Editor)

Music (in order of appearance)
"No Frills Salsa" – Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
"Tango de Manzana" – Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) 
"Thatched Villagers" – Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) 
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This material is based upon work supported by NASA through 
contract NNL11AA00B and cooperative agreement NNX14AB60A.

Voice over by Courtney Duquette 
This project will help MARN build a better understanding of the current trends. This information can be passed all the way down to the subsistence farming level to help safeguard forests, agricultural traditions, and livelihoods in la Mancomunidad la Montañona
Music in the background -- "Thatched Villagers" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
This material is based upon work supported by NASA through contract NNL11AA00B and cooperative agreement NNX14AB60A.

4:04-4:12: Mandatory DEVELOP closing clip