Goddard Space Flight Center
Great Lakes Ecological Forecasting
Bogged Down in Phragmites: Assessing Risk in the Great Lakes Basin

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>> ISSAC: My name is Isaac Kinton. 


>> SEAN: My name is Sean McCartney. 


>> PETER: And my name is Peter Jacobs. 


>> ISSAC: And We are the Great Lakes Ecological Forecasting team.


>> SEAN: The purpose of our project was to use NASA Earth observations to model the location of an invasive species found within the North American Great Lakes.


>> ISSAC: Our project focused specifically on modeling Phragmites australis. 

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>> PETER: Wait, what the heck is Phragmites?!

>> Issac: Phragmites australis is a wetland grass native to Eurasia. Along with other invasive species, Phragmites is estimated to cost the Great Lakes Basin over $5 billion every year. Phragmites is a significant stressor on biodiversity. As it grows, it alters its local environment, displacing native grasses, resulting in monotypic stands. In addition to the loss of shelter and food provided by the native grasses, monotypic Phragmites stands also increase fire risk. Phragmites can also obstruct lakefront views and limit access to water, significantly reducing property values.


>> SEAN: The study area for our project was the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin. We focused our study within 10 km of the US and Canadian coastline, based on situ data previsouly collected and the number of communities impacted by Phragmites. This area comprises 8 US states and 2 Canadian provinces. The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on the Earth, comprising 21% of the world's surface freshwater by volume. 

>> VICKI PAULAS: One of the concerns that Phragmites poses for us is that really not a good for any of the wildlife. The main thing is you want to get rid of it, you want to get the natural seed base that's here so all the nice marsh grasses come up. Things like the ducks, the snails, little mud crabs, things will come in here. Things that are very productive in the marsh.

>> ISSAC: Our primary project partner has been the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative and the Michigan Tech Research Institute. The Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Cities Initiative is a boundary organization whose members include cities in the U.S. and Canada that reside along the coastal areas of the Great Lakes Basin. The Michigan Tech Research Institute has been involved in mapping Phragmites across the U.S. Great Lakes coastal region by using remotely sensed data satellite imagery. 
 
>> DAVID ULLRICH: One of the major issues we deal with on the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence is invasive species. One of the plants we are most concernced about are non-native Phragmites. Mayors all across the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence are trying to deal with this problem both in terms of containing it, controlling them, and eradicating it. 

>> PETER: Earth Observations used inclue the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission which genereated elevation and topographic roughness variables used for land change modeling; Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and Global Precipitation Measurement were used to generate precipitation data for modeling as driver variables.

>> SEAN: In situ data for Phragmites locations were collected for training and validation of the model. Earth observations were collected for precipitation and elevation. Driver variables were determined based on prior habitat modeling. Data was processed to be used by modeling software. Phragmites locations were modeled using environmental variables to output a risk assessment map of Phragmites throughout the Great Lakes Basin. We then modeled land change to predict land cover in 2020. Finally habitat suitability modeling was then run using modeled land change to forecast a Phragmites risk map for 2020. 

>> PETER: The Maxent model was run using 9 environmental driver variables and in situ Phragmites presence locations. This generated a map of Phragmites risk probability from 0-1. Maxent identified the most important environmental variables for Phragmites locations as: topographic roughness, temperature during the coldest months, temperature during the driest months, soil drainage, and distance from agriculture. Land Change Modeler was used to predict land cover for the year 2020. Along with projected values for the other environmental variables for 2020, these results were used by Maxent to forecast a Phragmites risk map in the year 2020. 

>> ISSAC: Our results will benefit the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative by allowing them to focus their mitigation efforts on areas at greatest potential risk from Phragmites. Every year, invasive species like Phragmites cost the Great Lakes region more than 5 billion dollars. With our results, we hope to help stakeholders in the region ensure that these lakes stay "great" for a long time to come.

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